The United States must produce an additional 712,000 certificates and associate’s degrees annually through 2032 to meet demand for workers in high-paying middle-skills occupations, according to a new report by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW).
Titled “Bridging the Middle-Skills Gap: Connecting a Diverse Workforce to Economic Opportunity Through Certificates and Associate’s Degrees,” the report outlines a growing shortage of credentials aligned with jobs that offer median earnings above $55,000 for workers ages 18 to 35 without a bachelor’s degree.
“These credential shortages are troubling because the U.S. is in dire need of qualified workers to keep our infrastructure intact, our communities safe, and our industries at the forefront of innovation,” said Emma Nyhof McLeod, the report’s lead author and a senior policy analyst at CEW.
The report identifies the largest annual shortages in four key occupational areas: blue-collar (360,800), management and professional office (253,000), STEM (87,500), and protective services (10,600). Health care is the only middle-skills field without a projected credential shortage—largely due to employers’ growing preference for bachelor’s degree holders in that sector.
While credentials don’t guarantee a high-paying job, the data shows a strong correlation between aligned credentials and higher wages. For example, 73% of credentialed workers in STEM find jobs in high-paying occupations, followed by protective services (58%) and management and office roles (47%).
Despite opportunity, access remains unequal. The report highlights stark racial and gender disparities in both credential attainment and employment. White men dominate high-paying middle-skills roles across most sectors, holding 68% of such jobs in blue-collar fields and 58% in STEM. Women, who earn the majority of credentials in management and health care, are more likely to be funneled into lower-paying roles within those sectors.
“Credential shortages present an opportunity to diversify high-paying middle-skills occupations and strengthen the American economy by drawing qualified workers from the widest talent pool possible,” said Jeff Strohl, CEW director and report co-author. “But first, we need to address long-standing disparities in credential attainment and the labor market.”
The authors call for expanding work-based learning, academic and career support, and reforming biased hiring practices to make middle-skills career pathways more accessible and equitable.
