The numbers of Americans with an education beyond high school have climbed steadily for more than a decade. Yet a new analysis suggests that degree completion alone may no longer be the most important measure of progress.
In its latest “A Stronger Nation” report, the Lumina Foundation establishes a new benchmark for evaluating higher education—one that looks beyond whether adults earn credentials and focuses on whether those credentials translate into measurable economic gains. The foundation’s long-term objective is that by 2040, 75% of adults in the U.S. labor force will hold a postsecondary “credential of value.”
The definition is explicit. A credential of value must lead to earnings at least 15% higher than the national median annual salary of a high school graduate. Using that threshold, Lumina reports that 43.6% of adults ages 25 to 64 currently in the labor force meet this benchmark. That figure serves as the national baseline for the 2040 goal.
The new measure contrasts with overall attainment rates. In 2024, 54.8% of working-age adults held a post-high school credential, an increase of 16.7 percentage points since 2009. While that rise reflects sustained gains in degree and certificate completion, it also underscores a gap. Roughly 11 percentage points separate attainment from the credentials that meet Lumina’s earnings standard.
“More Americans have formal education or training after high school, but new federal data show the country is far from meeting long-term demand for talent and ensuring widespread economic opportunity,” the foundation stated in announcing the findings.
Lumina’s president and CEO, Jamie Merisotis, framed the shift as an evolution in the national conversation about college value. “Our objective in encouraging and supporting leaders in business, government, higher education, the nonprofit sector, and workforce development to pursue the 75% goal is not simply to foster more learning after high school,” he said. “We want this learning to help people experience economic gains and social mobility that renew American prosperity.”
The data reveal substantial variation by credential type. Among those with graduate or professional degrees, 80% earn at or above the benchmark. For bachelor’s degree holders, the share is 70%. By contrast, 54% of associate degree holders and 55% of individuals with certifications meet the earnings threshold. Short-term credentials account for 7% of the labor force meeting the benchmark, compared with 36.6% who hold degrees and meet it.
The differences reinforce Lumina’s finding that economic value is not evenly distributed across programs. “But the degrees and other credentials people earn must position them for workforce success and financial security,” said Courtney Brown, Lumina’s vice president of impact and planning. “To reach 75%, more adults will need degrees and short-term options such as certificates and industry certifications.”
Geography further complicates the picture. In 2024, the share of adults in the labor force with credentials of value ranged from 25% in Puerto Rico to 67.7% in the District of Columbia. The national average stands at 43.6%, which leaves the country 31.4 percentage points short of the 75% target.
Age patterns also emerge. Among degree holders in the labor force, 40% of those ages 35 to 44 meet the benchmark, compared with 34% of those ages 25 to 34 and 32% of those ages 55 to 64. The data suggest that earnings gains may accumulate over time, though disparities persist across demographic groups.
The foundation situates its new goal within broader economic projections. By 2031, 72% of U.S. jobs are expected to require additional education or training beyond high school. Lumina estimates that increases in educational attainment since 2010 have generated at least $14.2 trillion in additional net lifetime earnings nationally through 2020 alone.
At the same time, public confidence in higher education has eroded. Lumina’s strategic plan notes that only 36% of Americans express high confidence in colleges and universities, down from 57% in 2015. Rising tuition, concerns about alignment with labor-market needs, and the rapid influence of artificial intelligence have contributed to skepticism about return on investment.
By linking attainment to earnings, Lumina is effectively redefining accountability in higher education. The question is no longer solely how many Americans enroll or graduate, but whether postsecondary education delivers on its economic promise.
As Brown observed, “These baseline numbers show how far we have to go. We have to continue to rethink how education and career training work in the United States.”
With 2040 set as the horizon, the new framework places economic value at the center of national attainment goals, signaling a shift that could shape policy, funding priorities, and institutional design in the years ahead.
